Oil demand will not return to pre-crisis levels

Oil demand will not return to pre-crisis levels

FINANCE

2020-07-20 13:03:00

The decline in sales from hydrocarbon exports and a sluggish reduction in production is not a forecast of alarmists, however a new ecomonic reality. If before the beginning of the coronacrisis, experts predicted that the peak of oil manufacturing inside the country will be somewhere in 2025, nowadays many say that this top turned into already handed in 2019. And then, considering the imposed regulations and the state of our reserves, manufacturing will no longer growth, but decrease. The coronavirus pandemic has already harm the "oil industry": within the spring of this year, the charge of a barrel of Brent fell to the level of $23.48, and the Urals-to $14.96.

As for the call for oil, it reduced with the aid of 20-25% within the 2nd quarter. As a result, current transfers to the budget from the Federal customs service (FCS) also 2020 reduced by 23% as compared to the identical duration ultimate year, and in April and may this drop reached 40% on an annual basis. Do I need to specify that the FCS mostly transfers money obtained from the export of hydrocarbons? Is the technology of reasonably-priced oil in reality waiting for us? After all, after a pointy fall in March–April, oil prices rose, and because the stop of may additionally, the price of a barrel of Brent has been installed above the $40 mark. Although in the spring, many economists stated that before the start of the fourth area, the rate will differ within the range of $30-35. Urals oil is likewise traded around the $40+ mark (the price range includes the discern of $42.4).

Experts say that within the quick and long time, there can be a whole set of factors so that it will push the barrel down. In the following six months, the most apparent risks will be the onset of a worldwide recession and the hazard of a second wave of pandemics, which will again freeze the financial system that has began to revive. To this we ought to upload the trouble of gasoline reserves which are amassed around the arena. As Mikhail Krutikhin, accomplice Of the RusEnergy facts and consulting Agency, noted on the conference "Russia with out oil: recipes for survival","we see a clear extra of vehicle and aviation gasoline in garage facilities." And that is understandable: planes fly little, and the use of motors is likewise restricted. For instance, the June charts of the country department of transportation showed that the quantity of air passengers recovered via approximately 10% after the maximum decline. And the quantity of Americans journeying with the aid of automobile become 15% of the pre-disaster stage.

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